What are the most likely next steps in the Julius Malema case?

Short answer

• The immediate next steps are: (1) a sentencing hearing (already set for 23 January 2026); (2) the accused noting/applying for leave to appeal in the magistrates’ court shortly after sentence; and (3) an appeal to the High Court (and, if necessary, onward applications to the Supreme Court of Appeal and Constitutional Court). Malema has publicly said he will appeal. If he is sentenced to more than 12 months’ imprisonment without the option of a fine and that sentence stands (i.e. his appeals fail or time for appeal expires), he risks disqualification from Parliament under the Constitution. (reuters.com)

What just happened (context)

• On 1 October 2025 the East London magistrate found Julius Malema guilty on firearms-related charges arising from a 2018 rally. Sentencing was postponed to 23 January 2026. Malema has stated he will appeal the conviction. (reuters.com)

Legal framework that determines the “next steps”

• Sentencing: after conviction the magistrate imposes sentence at a sentencing hearing (magistrates’ court procedure). (Reported sentencing date: 23 January 2026). (reuters.com)
• Appeal from a magistrates’ court: a person convicted in a lower court may appeal to the provincial division of the High Court; in most cases the accused must first apply to the magistrates’ court for leave to appeal (Criminal Procedure Act 51 of 1977, ss 309 and 309B). Time limits and procedures are prescribed by the Act and rules of court. (lawlibrary.org.za)
• Bail / suspension pending appeal: the execution of a sentence is not automatically suspended by noting an appeal. A convicted person may apply for bail or release pending appeal; courts exercise a wide discretion and require persuasive reasons (see recent High Court authorities on bail pending appeal). If bail is refused, the convicted person can seek relief from the High Court in terms of the appeal provisions. (lawlibrary.org.za)
• Parliamentary disqualification: the Constitution disqualifies anyone “convicted of an offence and sentenced to more than 12 months’ imprisonment without the option of a fine” from membership of the National Assembly — but “no one may be regarded as having been sentenced until an appeal … has been determined, or until the time for an appeal has expired.” (Constitution s 47(1)(e)). That means disqualification will usually only bite after appeals are exhausted or the appeal period lapses. (lawlibrary.org.za)

Step-by-step: the most likely procedural path and timings

1. Sentencing hearing (magistrates’ court) — 23 January 2026 is the date reported in media. The magistrate will decide the appropriate sentence (custodial term, suspended sentence, fine, community-based option, etc.). If the sentence is custodial and greater than 12 months without option of a fine, there will be immediate political and legal consequences (see below). (reuters.com)

2. Leave to appeal / noting an appeal (magistrates’ court — within short statutory period)

• After sentence the defence will normally apply to the trial magistrate for leave to appeal (or note an appeal where permitted). The Criminal Procedure Act and court rules set short time limits (often 14 days for an application for leave to appeal in practice, subject to extension on good cause). If leave is refused, the defence can seek leave from the High Court. Expect the defence to file papers promptly. (lawlibrary.org.za)

3. Application for bail pending appeal / stay of execution of sentence

• If a custodial sentence is imposed, the defence is likely to apply for release on bail pending appeal or for the execution of sentence to be suspended pending appeal. Courts apply established principles in deciding such applications (balance of flight risk, interests of justice, prospects of success on appeal, public interest). High‑court authority shows this is a discretionary but not uncommon step in high‑profile cases. (lawlibrary.org.za)

4. Appeal in the High Court (merits review of conviction and/or sentence)

• If leave to appeal is granted or the appeal is validly noted, the case will go to the provincial division of the High Court for an appeal on conviction and/or sentence. The High Court may confirm, set aside or alter the conviction and/or sentence; it may order a new trial in certain circumstances, or remit the matter. If the High Court declines relief, the defence can seek leave to appeal to the Supreme Court of Appeal (and thereafter to the Constitutional Court, if constitutional issues or leave are granted). The defence has already signalled that it may appeal up to the Constitutional Court. (lawlibrary.org.za)

5. Potential prosecutorial appeals or cross-appeals

• The State can also appeal certain court orders or seek leave to appeal against sentences in limited circumstances (Criminal Procedure Act s 310A). (lawlibrary.org.za)

Key legal and political consequences to watch

• Seat in Parliament: under s 47(1)(e) of the Constitution, a sentence of more than 12 months’ imprisonment without option of a fine disqualifies a person — but disqualification is deferred until appeals are exhausted or the appeal period expires. So a conviction alone at magistrates’ level will not automatically remove an MP while appeal avenues remain. (lawlibrary.org.za)
• Bail pending appeal and reporting obligations: if bail is granted, courts typically impose conditions; if denied, the appellant may remain in custody pending appeal. Recent High Court decisions stress the court’s broad discretion and the need for the appellant to demonstrate strong reasons for release pending appeal. (lawlibrary.org.za)
• Political fallout: irrespective of legal remedies, a conviction (even if on appeal) produces immediate political and reputational consequences; parties and Parliament may take political steps depending on public and party considerations.

Practical likelihoods (what is most probable, based on normal practice and public statements)

• Malema (and his legal team) are very likely to: (a) proceed to the next step of sentence mitigation arguments on 23 January 2026; (b) file for leave to appeal promptly after sentencing if a custodial sentence or an adverse sentence is imposed; and (c) seek release pending appeal if a custodial sentence is imposed and they think an appeal has reasonable prospects. He has publicly said he will appeal. The State may oppose bail pending appeal and will resist any attempt to avoid execution of a custodial sentence. (businesslive.co.za)

Sources and authorities (select)

• Media reporting of conviction and sentencing date: Reuters; AP; BusinessLIVE; EWN. (reuters.com)
• Criminal Procedure Act 51 of 1977 — appeals from lower courts (ss 309, 309B, 310A, et seq.). (lawlibrary.org.za)
• Recent High Court bail/appeal practice: Mkhangeli v S (Bail) (CC130/10) [2025] ZAECMHC 15; S v Joubert (03/2023) [2024] ZANWHC 198 (authority on bail pending appeal and related practice). (lawlibrary.org.za)
• Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, s 47(1)(e) (membership/disqualification). (lawlibrary.org.za)

What to watch next (practical checklist)

• 23 January 2026 — sentencing hearing outcome (custodial term, suspended sentence, fine, or other). (reuters.com)
• Within 14 days (or applicable rule period) after sentence — whether defence applies for leave to appeal in magistrates’ court; whether an application for bail pending appeal is launched. (static.pmg.org.za)
• Filing of appeal record and timetable for High Court hearing; any interim High Court orders on bail or suspension of sentence. (lawlibrary.org.za)
• Any prosecutorial appeals or cross-appeals and related interlocutory applications. (lawlibrary.org.za)
• Political/Parliamentary steps if sentence exceeds constitutional disqualification threshold after appeals are exhausted. (lawlibrary.org.za)

Limitations and caveat

• This is a procedural/legal outline based on reported facts and applicable law as of today (2 October 2025). I have relied on contemporaneous news reports for the conviction and sentencing date and on the Criminal Procedure Act and recent High Court decisions for procedural rules. Timing and precise tactical steps in any particular prosecution depend on defence/state strategy, magistrate/High Court directions, and any unforeseen interlocutory applications. For case‑personalised advice or litigation strategy you should consult a criminal practitioner on the ground. (reuters.com)

If you want, I can:

• Monitor and summarise the 23 January 2026 sentencing outcome and subsequent appeal filings (and provide a timeline of every major step); or
• Outline the specific grounds of appeal that the defence is likely to raise in this case and the legal tests the High Court will apply.